Infrastructure can take heart from party manifestos

Peter Campbell
22 April 2015

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With all the parties’ manifestos now launched, ACE’s Peter Campbell takes a look at them and highlights some key aspects the industry will want to bear in mind.

The most noticeable thing that emerged from the flurry of manifesto launches we finally saw last week was the amount of positives the infrastructure sector can take from them all. The hard-won cross-party consensus around the importance and value of infrastructure seems to holding as all the main political parties fall over themselves to burnish their credentials.

"ACE also saw several of the proposals from its Manifesto 2015: Engineering Growth make it into those of the main parties. The Conservatives committed to develop Crossrail 2, while the Liberal Democrats’ called for local authorities to formulate 15 year plans for addressing housing needs, and Labour pledged to improve the competitiveness of the energy market."

There were some minor fluctuations around, for instance, housing targets (300,000 for the Liberal Democrats, 200,000 for Labour) and the language around aviation and the Davies Commission (the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will ‘consider’ the recommendations, Labour will do so ‘swiftly’).

In addition, Labour’s plan to abandon two road upgrades in the South and South West (the A27 and A358) could reignite uncertainty about Labour’s commitment to long-term stability in roads planning. On the whole, however, the major parties have clearly taken the industry’s messages to heart.

ACE also saw several of the proposals from its Manifesto 2015: Engineering Growth make it into those of the main parties. The Conservatives committed to develop Crossrail 2, while the Liberal Democrats’ called for local authorities to formulate 15 year plans for addressing housing needs, and Labour pledged to improve the competitiveness of the energy market.

All three parties also had a lot to say on devolution, again an issue that featured highly in ACE’s election campaign. If elected, they will all see further devolution of responsibility for transport to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the core-city and metro-regions.

The added twist in all of this, however, are the minor parties, who will, in all likelihood, hold the balance of power and help one or two of the main parties form a government in some way after Thursday 7 May. In essence, this is where we will really see the differences over infrastructure emerge between the governments of different colours.

UKIP, for instance, has pledged to scrap HS2 and to implement the recommendations of the Davies Commission, while also supporting fracking, abandoning onshore windfarms, and advocating a new generation of coal-fired power stations. This puts them at severe odds, not just with the major parties (particularly Labour and the Liberal Democrats), but also some of the minor parties such as the SNP and the Greens.

Likewise, the Green Party has produced a manifesto with commitments to rule out aviation expansion and even to reduce it, to abandon delivery of a new generation of nuclear power plants, and even ‘regulate the private sector in the common interest.’ These are all pledges that would see them having a hard time working with the likes of the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and UKIP.

It is not clear at this stage which parts of the parties’ manifestos would be ‘red lines’, i.e. non-negotiable, in any talks to form a coalition or pact of any kind. This will be an inevitable part of any attempt to form a stable government in the days, weeks, and maybe months following the general election, just ask the Liberal Democrats about its commitment in 2010 around student tuition fees!

It is, therefore, difficult to pre-judge how things will turn out. UKIP might change its mind on HS2 for a commitment from a Conservative administration on aviation. Likewise, the Greens might change its mind on HS2 for the opposite from Labour. There is also the possibility that the parties have not put forward their entire platforms and withheld potential policies to ensure they still have some cards to play in any post-election negotiations.

In short, there are not only a great deal of imponderables when it comes to what the make up of the next parliament will be, but also a significant amount of unanswered questions around what positions will be taken by potential partners in government. To some extent, while the manifestos have cleared up a lot of confusion, they have also created a different type of uncertainty. Watch this space!

Peter Campbell is senior policy manager at ACE

Get the inrastructure highlights from the manifestos here