Capital’s ‘leading city’ status under threat from inadequate infrastructure

New report finds that London is significantly underestimating the level of development required to keep up with the city’s growth over the coming decades.

Andy Walker
07 January 2016

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London’s position as one of the world’s leading cities is in jeopardy due to the capital’s infrastructure not keeping pace with the city’s future development according to a report by consultants Atkins.

The Atkins report, Future Proofing London, produced in partnership with Oxford Economics and Centre for London, says there is a need for major improvement across the capital to halt decline and claims that official London infrastructure plans are falling significantly short of projected growth rates. They also calculate a shortfall of 1.5 million homes in the south east by 2050 and say that London faces an unbalanced economy, a more unequal society, and degradation of the natural environment, if plans are not adjusted.

Future Proofing London outlines steps to future proof London and maintain its international status in the face of forecasts that the population will reach 12 million by 2050, not the 11.3 million projected in the Greater London Authority’s (GLA) London Infrastructure Plan – which the report claims is an underestimation larger than the current population of Manchester.  The GLA expects there to be 6.3 million workers in the capital at this time, but this figure will actually be reached 24 years earlier, in 2026, according to the report. If new homes are delivered at the current rate – 26,000 annually over the past five years – the south east will be left with a shortfall of 1.5 million by 2050.

Mike McNicholas, Atkins’ director for London, said: “London’s position as one of the world’s leading cities is in real danger of slipping. The GLA is working hard to move us in the right direction but few would disagree there is still a lot more that needs to be done if we want to tackle the challenges facing London. It’s vital that we keep on top of evolving trends and update our plans to deal with them otherwise   the infrastructure will not be developed at the right rate, or crucially in the right way, over the next few decades and leave London residents, workers and visitors facing avoidable issues.  

“The housing supply and the projected population growth are a long way apart and this will only get worse if we carry on down the same path. There will be serious knock on effects as the pressure of the growing population pushes onto under prepared infrastructure.”

Atkins say that the potential issues that London faces as a result of inadequate housing and infrastructure include:

• Displacement of the population to outer areas of London
• Growing inequality and divisions in the city
• Overcrowding 
• Transport network pressure, especially for commuters
• Lack of affordable residential and commercial property
• Unbalanced economic growth
• Professionals being dissuaded from moving to London
• Degradation of the environment

McNicholas added: “The approach to housing, schools, transport networks and industry needs to change to keep London’s social and economic development moving in the right direction, but there are available solutions. The Mayor, the London boroughs and developers have a responsibility to ensure that they are meeting the needs of the people who live and work in the city, now and in the future.

“It is not simply of matter of commissioning new building projects, but considering the social and environmental impacts of each step the city takes to ensure the right decisions are being made at the right time. Building in greater adaptability into our homes, offices and infrastructure will ensure the city is future proofed against the challenges it faces.”

Atkins’s proposed solutions include:

Prioritising infrastructure investment – avoid focus on cost benefit analysis, which overlooks environmental and social benefits, when  appraising plans and make use of big data to make better informed infrastructure and planning decisions. Local authorities, businesses and developers need to work more closely together to ensure they are taking these factors into account. See Gillett Square, Hackney.

Revitalising outer London – create orbital rail links and cycle super highways to connect outer London centres. Densify the suburbs by building different types of housing amongst green spaces to provide a mixed community. See the regeneration of Croydon

Curated Clusters – select urban places of distinctive character to be hubs for residential, commercial and industrial developments to act as catalysts for growth in new technology and knowledge driven industries. Creating a sense of place through providing adaptable business space, community areas and a shared responsibility from local authorities and residents to maintain the environment. See East London’s Tech City

Green Infrastructure - reassess the Green Belt provision, making hard choices on developing affordable and sustainable housing in previously protected areas. Create multi-functional green spaces across the city as part of any infrastructure developments. See the Thames Tideway Tunnel.

Future Proofing London can be downloaded here.