Worst case no-deal Brexit could see 43,000 fewer UK construction jobs, report says

A no-deal Brexit could see up to 43,000 fewer construction jobs in the UK, according to an economic forecast commissioned by the mayor of London.

The research undertaken by analysts Cambridge Econmetrics has produced a damning report on the adverse effects a hard Brexit could have on the UK economy and various sectors. Sadiq Khan claims the study shows that a no-deal outcome could cost the country half a million jobs and £50bn in lost investment by 2030. 

The findings also looked at London alone where increased housing numbers are desperately needed. Experts believe there could be 5,000 fewer jobs and a drop in output of up to £1.2bn by 2030 in the construction sector should the UK decide to walk away from a deal and leave both the EU customs union and single market.

Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said: “If the government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment. The analysis concludes that the harder the Brexit we end up with, the bigger the potential impact on jobs, growth and living standards.”

The analysis looks at the potential impact five different Brexit scenarios could have on nine key sectors of the economy. It shows that every Brexit outcome analysed would be bad for the British economy, but that the harder the Brexit, the more severe the consequences. The worst of the five scenarios postulates a departure in March 2019 with no deal or transition arrangements and researches have estimated this would lead to 482,000 fewer jobs across the entire UK and a loss of £46.8bn in investment by 2030.

"If the government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment."
Sadiq Khan, mayor of London.

James Murray, deputy mayor for housing and residential development, said: “This report lays bare the huge risks we would face as a result of Government’s failure to secure a Brexit deal that works for London and the rest of the UK. The fact the Mayor has had do the prime minister’s job in publishing the full impact of Brexit is truly damning. It shows the scale of the blow that a no-deal hard Brexit could have on our homebuilding efforts. London needs 13,000 additional construction workers to build the homes the capital needs – we simply cannot afford to lose skilled European labour.”

The research was commissioned after the Brexit secretary David Davis told MPs in December the government had failed to produce any economic forecasts on the likely impacts Brexit could have. Answering questions from the Brexit select committee, Davis also said no economic impact study had been undertaken before the cabinet decision to leave the customs union. 

The Labour mayor was also a strong supporter of the remain campaign and has since argued for the UK to stay in the EU’s single market and customs union. Davis’s admissions in December have said to ignite a drive to produce some research-based evidence of future impacts. While the report’s authors have stressed the figures are reliant on a range of factors, it is the first time analysis like this had been undertaken to delve into the wider impacts of a no-deal Brexit.

Analysis by Melanie Leech, chief executive of the British Property Federation

Not knowing if we’ll have enough skilled workers to resource the construction industry over the coming years is deeply concerning.

We urge government to provide clarity on the status of EU workers as soon as possible – we are already seeing this uncertainty undermine regeneration up and down the country.

Government must get migration policy right if we wish to build much-needed homes and the physical environments capable of driving innovation, which underpin a successful post-Brexit UK.