Thoughts from the gallery on Theresa May’s new government

Julian Francis
13 July 2016

Twitter FacebookLinkedIn

Print

Topics 

Politics

As a new prime minister moves into Downing Street and a new Cabinet begins to take shape, Julian Francis offers his thoughts on what comes next.  

Those of us who are keen watchers of the political weather in Westminster - and who is not these days? - knew that a new weather front was on the way on Monday morning. The disastrous weekend for Andrea Leadsom following her comments about how having children would make her a better leader seemed to indicate that things were coming to a head. It was clear that only one contender for the leadership had the skills for the job and by lunchtime we knew the next prime minister would be Theresa May.

So we have a new prime minister and much sooner than we were expecting.  In a little over two weeks since the referendum we have seen the political world turn upside down and a new reality emerge. Although people have asked for things to move faster than they have, we must not blind ourselves to how rapidly things have actually moved.

As I write this, there are still many questions to answer and no doubt some of those will be answered by the end of the week, but it may be worthwhile taking a breath and seeing what we know now that we did not know before. 

Top of the list is that we are no longer in the age of austerity and it is now almost inevitable that the architect of austerity, George Osborne, will not remain long in the Treasury, although he may well stay around the cabinet table. In her leadership bid, Mrs May argued that austerity had left too many people locked out of the economic recovery in the UK and more must be done to help those communities. This does not mean that we are about to see a sudden upturn in government spending but it does mean the straightjacket of a balanced budget is no longer the key priority. 

"We are no longer in the age of austerity and it is now almost inevitable that the architect of austerity, George, Osborne, will not remain long in the Treasury, although he may well stay around the cabinet table."

The potentially good news for our industry is that there have been indications that a May government would borrow to invest in infrastructure development as this is a key way to deliver growth. Economic connectivity will also be high on the agenda as this will enable the UK to grow internally and externally.

Secondly, Article 50 will not be triggered before the end of the year as May  has stated that she wishes to establish a new government department that will be tasked solely with Brexit. This will require some time to set up and will see a merging of resources from various departments and the Cabinet Office Brexit Unit to form a cohesive team. Who gets this job will be a key indicator for our industry but it has already been stated this will be a leading Brexiteer.  So look out for either Johnson or Gove as potential candidates or perhaps a crafty Mrs May could opt for a less well known Brexiteer so keeping her promise while not elevating a potential rival.

This interval may seem like a bad thing at first glance but it is actually a boon for our industry. The complexity of the Brexit negotiations is such that we should not rush into it without knowing exactly what the key points that the UK will need to achieve are to make our withdrawal a success. Time allows our industry to determine what position it will take in these negotiations and to compile the evidence needed to convince the government of its case.  

There will not be an election in the short term. The new PM has stated that she does not favour calling a general election following her elevation but wants to wait until 2020. People have raised the democratic issue of not having an election as an impediment to Theresa’s government but there is no constitutional requirement for her to have one so long as her majority holds. We must also remember the Fixed Term Parliament Act significantly curtails her freedom in calling an election as she can now only have an election before 2020 if the government loses a vote of confidence or else 65%  of the Commons votes for one. All of this relies on the opposition collaborating with the government which seems unlikely at the moment.  

Devolution will continue to be on the agenda going forward with no signals that the Northern Powerhouse project will be dropped when Osborne leaves the Treasury. Re-balancing the economy and providing more jobs and greater prosperity outside the M25 is a key objective for the new government and the Northern Powerhouse is seen as the way to achieve this. Vote Leave highlighted that there is considerable dissatisfaction in England with people feeling left behind by developments in other parts of the UK. How the new PM balances the need for greater autonomy for England with Scottish nationalism will be a key test for the new government. 

"Devolution will continue to be on the agenda going forward with no signals that the Northern Powerhouse project will be dropped when Osborne leaves the Treasury. Rebalancing the economy will be a key objective for the new government and the Northern Powerhouse is seen as the way to achieve this."

There will be a tight inner circle that will surround the prime minister that will seek to ensure there is a very disciplined government. Theresa May is famous, if not notorious, for running one of the most disciplined and united political teams in Westminster. What this has meant is that her team does not leak, does not involve itself in political games and stays very loyal to May personally and to each other. The pattern looks set to repeat itself in Downing Street, meaning the key people that surround the prime minister will be the key advisors that surrounded her before her elevation. 

Finally, unlike her immediate predecessors, Theresa May does not owe her position to any one group or  person in the party. There is no political partner as there was with Blair and Brown or Cameron and Osborne and there are no mentors or powerful predecessors as was the case with Thatcher and Major. At the moment she stands alone and above her colleagues with no challenges to her pre-eminence. How long this lasts will depend on the decisions she makes in the next few days and weeks but one thing is clear, that she will be the one making the decisions.  

Although things will continue to remain uncertain for the weeks and months to come, the one thing we can expect is that the government will now have the beginnings of a plan on how to implement Brexit and a leader who will do it in a logical and methodical way. 

Julian Francis is director of policy and external affairs at the Association for Consultancy and Engineering.