The UK government’s current programmes will fail to deliver net zero, according to a hard-hitting report from the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC).
In its first comprehensive appraisal of UK’s net zero strategy, the CCC finds major failures in delivery programmes towards the achievement of the UK’s climate goals and warns that the current strategy will not deliver net zero.
At a time when the urgency of moving away from fossil fuels, securing energy supplies and cutting carbon emissions has never been clearer, the CCC report says that credible government plans only exist for over a third of the UK’s required emissions reductions to meet the Sixth Carbon Budget in the mid-2030s; with a fair wind we will manage another quarter; and over a third cannot be relied on to deliver the necessary emissions reductions.
In a landmark 600-page assessment, the CCC has revamped its framework for monitoring the UK’s climate progress, focusing on the changes needed on the ground to achieve net zero. Across the economy, the CCC has developed detailed new progress indicators to assess the risks of net zero delivery.
Last year, the CCC applauded the government for setting ambitious targets and launching a new net zero strategy.
Policies are now in place for most sectors of the economy, but the CCC’s thorough review of progress finds scant evidence of delivery against these headline goals so far. There are some bright spots of progress, but in most areas the likelihood of under-delivery is high.
This, says the CCC, is a high-wire approach to net zero. For the UK’s climate lead to be effective, the world must have confidence that we will keep our promises and that we have a clear and effective programme to achieve our commitments.
Lord Deben, CCC chairman, said: “The UK is a champion in setting new climate goals, now we must be world-beaters in delivering them. In the midst of a cost-of-living crisis, the country is crying out to end its dependence on expensive fossil fuels. I welcome the government’s restated commitment to net zero, but holes must be plugged in its strategy urgently. The window to deliver real progress is short. We are eagle-eyed for the promised action.”
The CCC says that UK emissions are now almost half (47%) their 1990 levels. Emissions rose 4% in 2021 as the economy began to recover from Covid-19 but were still 10% below 2019 levels. Further progress must be led by government policies with clear direction, credible delivery mechanisms and suitable incentives to shape private sector action. In no sector of the economy is this yet complete. Today’s report makes over 300 recommendations for filling out policies over the next year, reflecting the scale of the task at hand as the government moves from strategy to implementation.
The areas of strongest progress are backed and led by well-designed Government policy:
In other areas, low-carbon options remain in their infancy. Policy has not yet begun to guide the promised private sector action:
The CCC now warns that:
The CCC says the rest of the world must also get to grips with the delivery of net zero. UK success is doubly important as an example of what can be achieved, as a template for others to draw on. Effective delivery of net zero will be needed across the world if the Glasgow Climate Pact is to have the legacy that the UK aimed for at COP26 last year.
Click here to read the Climate Change Committee progress report.