North-south housing price divide to narrow by 2023, latest data suggests

A new report has revealed that property values in northern England are set to rise by a fifth with the north predicted to outperform London and the south over the next five years.

The forecast produce by the estate agent Savills says that house prices over the next 15 years are expected to rise by almost 15% over the next five years - adding £32,000 to the price of the average home by 2023 meaning properties will cost £248,000 on average in five years time.

In a reversal of the trend that has seen prices within the capital skyrocket, costs for London homes are projected to rise by 4.5% between 2019 and 2023. While house prices in the north west are expected to leap by 21.6%. Wales will see a 19.3% increase and Scotland will see 18.2% growth.

The research marks a massive swing in what has been seen previously in the UK with London seeing house prices soar by 72% over the past 10 years.

Data was based on figures from Nationwide Building Society's house price index, using indicators like predicted wage growth, interest rate rises and transaction numbers with Brexit once again seen as a big factor as well as the “legacy of the global financial crisis”.

The report states that key economies outside London such as Manchester and Birmingham is tipped to attract both local buyers and investors with the cities having the capacity to outperform surrounding regions.

Lucian Cook, Savills head of residential research, said: "Brexit angst is a major factor for market sentiment right now, particularly in London, but it's the legacy of the global financial crisis - mortgage regulation in particular - combined with gradually rising interest rates that will really shape the market over the longer term. That legacy will limit house price growth, but it should also protect the market from a correction."

Market expectations for 2019-2023 and average house price:

  • North east: 17.6% - £147,100
  • Yorkshire and Humberside: 20.5% - £193,117
  • North west: 21.6% - £197,717
  • East midlands: 19.3% - £222,392
  • West midlands: 19.3% - £227,394
  • South east: 9.3% - £305,885 (for outer areas) £398,190 (for inner areas)
  • East Anglia, 9.3%, £249,958
  • London: 4.5% - £489,628
  • South West: 12.6% - £276,359
  • Wales: 19.3% - £184,773
  • Scotland: 18.2% - £176,308
If you would like to contact Ryan Tute about this, or any other story, please email