Comment

Energy policy - a dereliction of our duty to the future of this country?

National Grid has plans to keep the lights on this winter - but what about next? It really is time for politicians to step up to the plate and push forward investment in new generation capacity, says Antony Oliver.

Antony Oliver, Infrastructure Intelligence editor

Back in May 2006, then Prime Minister Tony Blair delivered a controversial cabinet splitting U-turn speech over the need for the UK to invest in a new generation of nuclear power stations.

Addressing the Confederation of British Industries annual dinner Blair warned that, contrary to government policy at the time, failure to replace the current ageing nuclear plants would fuel global warming and endanger Britain's energy security.

"The facts are stark. By 2025, if current policy is unchanged there will be a dramatic gap on our targets to reduce CO2 emissions, we will become heavily dependent on gas and at the same time move from being 80% to 90% self-reliant in gas to 80% to 90% dependent on foreign imports, mostly from the Middle East, and Africa and Russia,” he said.

"The problem is that we are now becoming uncomfortably hooked on gas. And whichever way you look that brings with it the huge risks associated with escalating political tension in Russia and across the Middle East."

“If we don't take these long-term decisions now we will be committing a serious dereliction of our duty to the future of this country," he added.

Sadly, more than eight years and huge amounts of political debate and posturing later, little has in fact changed. 

Certainly thanks to the work and support by the last Labour administration and more recently – despite clear reluctance from the Liberal Democrats -  by the Coalition government we now have advanced plans to construct two new reactors at Hinkley Point and aspirations do the same at Sizewell straight after.

Unfortunately these plans appear stuck in the realm of aspiration. While strike prices have been agreed, advanced construction works contracts let and the industry has geared up to press forward, legal European hurdles over national subsidies still prevent any real progress from being made.

And eight years on Blair’s predictions are now starting to haunt us all. 

Nuclear accounts for around 16% of our electricity generation but of the UK’s current nine operation nuclear stations only Sizewell B is scheduled to be generating power beyond the next decade leaving just 10% of the existing capacity. 

Around 30% of our electricity currently comes from coal-burning power stations yet a third of these are expected to close by 2016 to meet EU air quality legislation.

"And while we continue to dither and delay over the replacement of our nuclear fleet we will indeed risk, as Tony Blair put it, “committing a serious dereliction of our duty to the future of this country.""

We have always therefore been heading towards uncharted gas dominated territory in terms of maintaining the grid.

So when first two coal stations catch fire and fall out of action, then Barking decides to opt for early shutdown, the already wafer-thin margin between supply and demand is stretched. 

Add in the unplanned shut down of four reactors at two nuclear power stations and the it starts to appear that Blair’s predictions are upon us.

Fortunately National Grid appears to be onto the problem – in the short term at least. Its Demand Side Balancing Reserve service to encourage energy intensive users to re-plan usage in the winter should successfully freei up capacity. 

And now the Supplementary Balancing Reserve service should also reboot sufficient generating capacity to keep the lights on this winter.

The problem is that we are now becoming uncomfortably hooked on gas. And whichever way you look that brings with it the huge risks associated with escalating political tension in Russia and across the Middle East.

We have made great strides towards a lower carbon self-sufficient renewable generation fleet and this must continue to attract investment as the generation nirvana. And if done correctly there is every hope that new techniques such as fracking will buy time and take away some of that political gas tension.

But the reality is that in the medium term we do need the generation backbone that nuclear provides. And while we continue to dither and delay over the replacement of our nuclear fleet we will indeed risk, as Tony Blair put it, “committing a serious dereliction of our duty to the future of this country."

Antony Oliver is the editor of Infrastructure Intelligence.

 

See National Grid reacts to plug the winter energy gap

If you would like to contact Antony Oliver about this, or any other story, please email antony.oliver@infrastructure-intelligence.com.