Comment

Estuary Airport – latest vision to fail the political, practical and financial deliverability test

Easiest options left on the table by Davies Airport Commisssion are now do-nothing or Gatwick, says Antony Oliver.

Antony Oliver, Infrastructure Intelligence editor

Well of course I’m disappointed. 

The proposals that remain on the Davies Commission’s shortlist are all certainly sensible, practical and deliverable solutions to the UK’s aviation crisis. But are they radical, visionary or exciting? No.

The smart money now appears to be shifting behind Gatwick as the politically, practically and financially deliverable option, which can boost capacity quickly. And, perhaps crucially, without public investment.

"The easiest decision will always be the “do-nothing” option. Or there’s Gatwick."

But is it the solution that puts the UK on the map at the heart of global trade? No.

Over the last few years, as the Inner Thames Estuary Airport plan developed from an early Boris Island vision to become the current Isle of Grain front runner, it has been hard to ignore the sheer vision and excitement that such a radical option presented.

As such it has appealed to my sense of “doing a job properly”, investing big for the long term and creating a watershed moment to change the status quo. It appealed as a seemingly crazy project which deep down really made a lot of sense globally.  

But of course it is impossible to get away from the reality that it was always going to be a long shot and a pretty difficult vision to turn into reality. Projects on this scale always are.

For all Mayor Johnson’s passion and commitment (and that of course is likely to continue for some time to come particularly if he ends up in a Tory government) we were talking about huge amounts of public investment, major disruption and a huge impact on business and individuals inherently linked to the Heathrow facility.

"I take solace in the reality that the Inner Thames Estuary Airport is not the first good idea to fail the deliverability test. History is littered with great ideas that never made it to practical reality. But some do."

Without doubt, the question asked of Davies Commission is a difficult one. There really can never be a single right of single wrong answer. But he has promised a recommendation by next May.

The greatest challenge of all still lies ahead - that of moving that recommendation to a (rapid) post-Election decision and then towards delivery. And with the best will in the world, regardless of who wins the next election, I still struggle to see that being made quickly.

The easiest decision will always be the “do-nothing” option. Or there’s Gatwick.

I take solace in the reality that the Inner Thames Estuary Airport is not the first good idea to fail the deliverability test. History is littered with great ideas that never made it to practical reality. But some do.

I travel to France quite a bit and so, of course, I use the Channel Tunnel. It seems odd to think that only 20 years ago the only option was to take a ferry. 

Moving this major infrastructure project from vision to reality took nearly 200 years. After such a long gestation period and numerous failed attempts, bringing it over the line meant vision, passion determination and political will. 

As did the high speed rail link that followed the Tunnel, the Crossrail scheme that came after and the HS2 scheme which is now working its way towards reality

There are many parallels between these projects and the Inner Thames Estuary Airport scheme. So while I’m disappointed today, perhaps - not any time soon - but one day….  

Antony Oliver is the editor of Infrastructure Intelligence

If you would like to contact Antony Oliver about this, or any other story, please email antony.oliver@infrastructure-intelligence.com.