Construction nervously waits as EU vote set to go down to the wire

Today is the last day of campaigning before the UK votes on whether to stay in the EU or leave. If you can believe the opinion polls then the result remains on a knife edge, with the country’s voters seemingly divided on whether to vote for the Remain or Leave camps in what has rightly been called the most important political decision most people will make in their lifetimes.

Despite claim and counter claim from the Leave camp, it is clear that the majority of the business community wants to see a vote to stay within the EU. Fears over the future of the economy, jobs, labour mobility, funding and spending plans and political uncertainty leading to economic slowdown have been cited by many business leaders as some of the reasons for remaining. 

Only this morning, in the biggest endorsement from the business world to date, the bosses of more than half of Britain's largest companies have urged voters to back Remain. 

Some 1,285 business leaders who together employ 1.75 million people - including more than 900 small and medium-sized firms and 51 of the FTSE 100 - say in a letter to The Times that Brexit would damage the British economy. The signatories include Sir Richard Branson of Virgin, Michael Bloomberg, the media mogul and former New York mayor, perfume entrepreneur Jo Malone and Sir Charles Dunstone, co-founder of Carphone Warehouse. Their message is unambiguous - “British business benefits massively from the EU”.

The counter arguments from the Leave campaign about the advantages of political and economic independence should Britain leave the EU have not gained the same traction amongst the business people, especially within the construction sector. Only last month we reported that investors believed that a vote for Brexit would halt investment for infrastructure for two years or more after the vote.  For the consultancy and engineering sector, a poll of ACE’s membership showed that more than 60% are in favour of remaining in the EU, reflecting similar feedback across most other business representative bodies across the UK. 

Of course, no business has a vote on Thursday and the decision to stay or to go will be firmly in the hands of a record electorate of 46,499,537, according to provisional figures published this week by the Electoral Commission.

Last night’s BBC Great Debate saw leading names from both sides of the EU referendum trade blows in a live TV debate at Wembley Arena on the eve of the final day of campaigning. The debate, in front of a 6,000-strong audience, featured almost two hours of questions on immigration, the economy and sovereignty. 

While, not surprisingly, no side landed a knock-out blow, many observers have commented favourably about the performance of Remainers Ruth Davidson MSP, newly elected London mayor Sadiq Khan and TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady. Of course this could be due to the novelty factor of the three not being seen on a public stage as much as their Brexit opponents, Boris Johnson, Labour’s Gisela Stuart and energy minister Andrea Leadsom. 

Turning back to the opinion polls, there has been some evidence of a swing back to the Remain side in the last week of the campaign. However, based on an average of the last six polls, with Remain at 51% and Leave on 49% the result is clearly too close to call and the final decision is set to go to the wire.

In common with many political and business observers and the rest of the population, the construction and infrastructure sector will have to wait until Friday morning to discover whether the country has taken a decision that will affect its future economic direction for years to come. 

Look out for a special Infrastructure Intelligence email on Friday afternoon where we will report on the referendum result and analyse the immediate implications for our sector.